花开棋牌

2014下半年钢铁市场或先扬后抑运行
发布日期:2014-07-08    
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JINNIANSHANGBANDEGUONEIGANGCAISHICHANGJIBENSHANGYIRUODIESHOUGUAN,ZHENGTIGANGJIADIEFUJIAODA;DANZAICHENGBENSHENDIEZHIHOU,GANGCHANGYINGLIKONGJIANRENGCUN,XIAYOUYONGGANGXUQIUDIWEIHUISHENG,DANRENGJIUJIAOWEIPIRUAN;ZAIJIEXIALAIDEXIABANNIAN,SUIZHEWENZENGZHANGFALI,SHICHANGXINXINHUIFU,JINNIANXIABANNIANGUONEIGANGJIAHUOZHENGTICHENGXIANXIANYANGHOUYIZOUSHI;8YUEFENZUOYOUGANGJIAHUOYINGLAINIANNEIFANDANGAODIAN,SUIHOUYINXUQIUTOUZHIJINJIUYINSHIGAOWEIPANZHENGHUIDIAO,ZAIZUIHOUYIGEJIDU,YINXUQIUDANJIJIDONGCHUXINGQINGXIAOSHIERZHONGGUINIANNEIDIWEISHUIPING。

 

GANGCAIGONGYINGFANGMIAN:CUGANGCHANLIANGWEICHIXIANGDUIGAOWEI,GONGYINGGUOSHENGYALINANJIE。

花开棋牌 TONGJIJUSHUJUXIANSHI,JINNIAN1-5YUEFENQUANGUOCUGANGRIJUNCHANLIANGFENBIEWEI221.68WANDUN、221.7WANDUN、226.61WANDUN、229.47WANDUN、227.2WANDUN,FENBIEJIAOQUNIANTONGQIGAOCHU16.45WANDUN、0.88WANDUN、12.74WANDUN、10.64WANDUN、10.97WANDUN,JUNYUANGAOYUQUNIANTONGQICHANLIANG,6YUEZHONGXUNZHONGDIANGANGQICUGANGRICHANZAICHUANGLISHIXINGAO,FANYING6YUEFENGANGCHANGSHENGCHANREQINGBINGWUJIANRUOJIXIANG。

CONGLISHIJINGYANLAIKAN,DISANJIDUHAIJIANGSHIGANGCHANGSHENGCHANGAOFENGQI,ZHIDAO4JIDUCAIHUIYOUSUOXIAJIANG。YUCITONGSHI,JINNIANQIAN5GEYUEGANGQIKUISUNYANZHONG,JIASHANGGANGJIABUDUANHUILUO,QIZIJINYALIGENGJIADEMINGXIAN;ZAIYINXINGBUDUANSHOUDAIDEQINGKUANGXIA,GANGCHANGWEILEWEICHIDAIKUANBUBEIYINXINGSHOUDAI,SHIBIXUYAOBAOCHIHUOYUEDESHENGCHANHUODONG,YINCICONGZHEIGECENGMIANLAIKAN,WEILAIGANGCHANGJIANCHANDONGLIBINGBUZU。YINCI,BIZHERENWEI,XIABANNIANWOGUOGANGCAIGONGYINGGUOSHENGDEDAGEJUBUHUIBEIDAPO,FANERHUIZAIGANGCHANGKAIGONGLVTISHENGJIWENZENGZHANGFALIYUQIZENGQIANGDEQINGKUANGXIAZENGCHANDEQINGKUANG,ZONGTILAIKAN,XIABANNIANGANGCAIGONGYINGHAIJIANGJIXUGAOWEIYUNXING。

花开棋牌 GANGCAIXUQIUFANGMIAN:WENZENGZHANGFALI,XIABANNIANGANGCAIXUQIUJIANG“XIANQIANGHOURUO”

QIANQIDEWEICIJIXIANGMUSHANGZAIJINZHANGDETUIJINZHIZHONG,ERYITOUZIWEIZHUTIDEWENZENGZHANGCUOSHIHAIJIANGJIXUJIAMADEXIAOXIYEZHUJIANDEDAOZHENGSHI;YINCI,XIABANNIANGUONEIWENZENGZHANGFALIYIJINGDACHENGGONGSHI。LINGWAI,YOUYUSHANGBANNIANLOUSHIDIMI,DAOZHIDEFANGDICHANTOUZIZENGSUJITUDIZHUANRANGJINJUNDAFUHUILUO,DANSUIZHE5YUEFENKAISHIXINFANGWUKAIGONGMIANJIHUISHENG,JIASHANGQUNIANDETUDIYEJIANGLUXUJINRUJIANSHEJIEDUAN,ZONGDELAIKAN,BIZHEDUIXIABANNIANFANGDICHANKAIFASHANGBAOYOUJIAODADEYUQI。QIETIELUJIANSHE、PENGGAIDENGXIANGMUSHANGBANNIANTUIJINJINDUJIAOMAN,WEILEWANCHENGNIANDURENWU,ZAIXIABANNIANQINGHAOTIANQIZENGDUODEQINGKUANGXIA,GAILEIGONGCHENGXIANGMUYEJIANGJINRUSHIGONGGAOFENGQI;LINGWAISUIZHEGUONEICIJIXIAOFEICUOSHIBUDUANCHUTAIJICIJICHUKOUCUOSHIDEJILI,GUONEIWAIXIAOFEIXUQIUZHENGZAIZENGZHANG。LINGWAI6YUEFENZHIZAOYEPMIZHISHUCHUANG7GEYUEXINGAO,FANYINGGONGYEJINGJIHUISHENGJIXUQUELI,YEJIANGCIJIHOUQIGANGCAIXUQIUSHIFANG。

 

YINCI,BIZHERENWEI,XIABANNIANWOGUODEGANGCAIXUQIUXIAOFEIJIANGDEDAOYOUXIAODESHIFANG,7~8YUEDEGANGSHIHUOJIANGCHENGXIANYOUYIGEDANJIBUDANDEJINGXIANG。GANGXUSHIFANGZHENGTIBIAOXIANHUOCHENGXIANXIANQIANGHOURUOGEJU;JINRUDISIJIDUHOU,JIANGSUIZHEBEIFANGDIQUXIANGJIBINGFENGERJINRUGANGCAISHICHANGJIJIEXINGXIAOFEIDANJIHOU,TONGSHIYOUYUCHUANTONG“DONGCHU”DEXIAOSHI,WOGUODEGANGCAIXUQIUSHIFANGYEJIANGJIANGZHINIANNEIDIDIAN。

 

花开棋牌 YUANLIAOCHENGBENFANGMIAN:JINKOUKUANGDENGHAIJIANGDIWEIZHENDANG,ZHENGTIXIANQIANGHOURUO。

花开棋牌 SHANGBANNIANJINKOUKUANGJIAGECHIXUXIADIE,ZUIDIJIANGZHI89MEIYUANDIWEI,DIEZHIGUONEIKUANGSHAN、HAIWAIERSANXIANKUANGSHANDECHENGBENXIAN,GUONEIBUFENKUANGSHANYINWEIKUISUNJIHUANBAOYALI,JIANCHANDADAO20~35%ZUOYOU,ZHEIHUOXUHUIJIDUANQIKUANGJIAYIDINGDEZHICHENG。DANSHIQUANQIUKUANGSHIGONGYINGGUOSHENGRIYIYANZHONG,BUSHAOHAIWAIKUANGSHANFENFENZAIDIPINWEIKUANGSHANGDADAZHEJIAXIAOSHOUQIANGZHANSHICHANG,QIEGUONEIKUANGQIJIANCHANYIRANWUFADIXIAOHAIWAIKUANGSHANKUOCHANDAILAIDEGONGYINGYALIZENGDA。YUCITONGSHI,ZHONGGUOGANGTIEXUQIUZENGSUFANGHUANYEZHIYUELETIEKUANGSHIXIAOFEI。

花开棋牌 YINCI,BIZHERENWEI,JIBIANGUONEIKUANGQIJIANCHAN,DANGUONEIGANGKOUTIEKUANGSHIGAODAYIDUNYISHANGDEGAOKUCUNJIGANGCHANGJINSHENCAIGOUDETAIDUBUBIAN,WEILAIKUANGJIAJIBIANCHUXIANFANDAN,DANSHANGZHANGKONGJIANYOUXIAN,BIZHERENWEIJINKOUKUANGJIAGEHAIJIANGJIXUZAI90~100MEIYUAN/DUNZHIJIANZHENDANGDIAOZHENG,HAIJIANGJIXUCHENGXIANXIANQIANGHOURUOGEJU,YUJIWEILAIXIANHUOGANGJIADECHENGBENZHICHENGYIRANJIANGLVEXIANBUZU。

ZHENGCEJIZIJINFANGMIAN:WEICIJIHAIJIANGJIAMA,HUOBIYUDIAOWEIDIAOKENENGJIAQIANG。

花开棋牌 GANGGANGGONGBUDE6YUEZHIZAOYEPMIZHISHUYANXUHUISHENGTAISHI,SHUOMINGGUONEIJINGJIZAIYIXILIEGAIGEZHENGCEJIWEICIJICUOSHIDEYINGXIANGXIAJIXUHAOZHUAN;WEILESHIXIANJINNIANDEGDP7.5%ZENGZHANGMUBIAO,SHICHANGPUBIANRENWEIXIABANNIANGUONEIWENZENGZHANGZHENGCECUOSHIHAIJIANGJIXUJIAMA,BAOCHIJINGJIZENGZHANGJIANGCHENGWEIXIABANNIANGEJIZHENGFUXIABANNIANZHUYAODERENWU。WEILEZHICHIJINGJIDEPINGWENZHENGZAI,HUOBIZHENGCEFANGMIANYEYOULEGENGDUOJIJIDEBIANHUA,YANGXINGZAILIANXUSHISHI2CIDINGXIANGJIANGZHUNZHIHOU,YUJIHAIJIANGJIXU,QIEFANGJIANGUANYUXIABANNIANYANGXINGQUANMIANJIANGZHUNDECAICEYEYUELAIYUEDUO。ZONGTILAIKAN,DANGQIANWOGUOXIAOFEIWUJIASHUIPINGRENGDIYUNIANDUKONGZHIMUBIAODE3.5%,YINCIYUJIXIABANNIANHUOBIZHENGCEHAIYOUGENGDADEYUDIAOWEIDIAOKONGJIAN;TONGSHICAIZHENGBUZHENGZAIQUANMIANDUCUGEJIZHENGFUJIADACAIZHENGZIJINZHICHIJINGJIDELIDU,ZONGTILAIKAN,XIABANNIANBULUNSHIZHENGCEHUANJINGHAISHIZIJINHUANJING,JUNHUIQIANGYUSHANGBANNIAN。

 

综合观点:当前钢价跌至低点,继续大幅下降的可能性不大,多将维持底部震荡格局;等待下半年微刺激项目发力、梅雨季节结束后下游工程项目施工加快等钢铁需求的集中释放,或刺激钢价底部反弹。然行业供求过剩矛盾没有得到有效的改善,且成本市场低位难起,钢铁行业内资金压力日益严重,也将制约钢价的反弹空间。整体来看,笔者认为,今年下半年国内钢价或将先强后弱;夏季钢市逆市反弹,进入9月份后随着下游钢材需求提前透支,钢价将逐步回落,并在四季度因冬储不再、实际需求减弱等因素而回落至年内低点。市场需要把握好阶段性行情,谨慎操作。